Monday, March 13, 2006

More on Oil...

Some interesting developments in the world of oil:

1. In 2005 we used 6.5 barrels of oil for every 1 that we discovered. The latest issue of Foreign Affairs, inside the front cover, has a fascinating ad from Chevron saying that "the world consumes 2 barrles of oil for every barrel discovered." Will you join us??? Sure, if you'll stop blowing smoke about oil use and reserves (see item #3 below, re: the Army's own assessment on this issue). The rest of the issue also had a few PO denial articles. One (by the VP of Eni) was so bold that I found it amusing. To paraphrase, the guy said that Peak Oil is all fearmongering because at present levels of consumption we hav 38 years of oil left, so no big deal. You'd think that, by the time you get to be the VP of Eni, you would know about a standard logistics curve, and realize that 38 years of oil doesn't mean that we'll just go on at current levels of production and then in 2044 just suddenly have no oil. No, production will gradually tail off--and that (particularly how fast production declines) is the source of the Peak Oil problem. But, even setting aside the logistics curve issue, I still plan to be alive in 38 years... I'm guessing this VP of Eni doesn't. I pitty his children.

2. Great graphic on Khuzestan that helps to explain my earlier post, "Keep an Eye on Khuzestan":



3. The US Army (through the Defense Technical Information Center, DTIC), has released for public consumption a report on their projections of Peak Oil, and its impact on future Army operations. Here's a tantalizing quote:

"World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi Arabia is considered the bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production since April 2003."

Hmmm...sounds like the US Army has managed to cut through the disinformation. Might want to download and save this .pdf before someone decides that this is no longer fit for public release...

17 comments:

Jeff Vail said...

Interesting that the Army report linked above actually quotes the CEO of Eni (an Italian oil major) saying that oil peaked in 2005... Maybe the VP is playing "good cop"??

Jason Godesky said...

Where'd you find the map?

Jeff Vail said...

Another item of note from the Army report (authored by the US Army Corps of Engineers--generally well respected) is that they repeatedly cite ASPO as their source. Hmmm...

Jeff Vail said...

Source for Map

Peter said...

Jeff,

Don't believe a word those tree-hugging army hippies tell you. They need to step away from the bong.

Everything will be just fine forever and ever.

Jeff Vail said...

I'm starting to think that in the next few years people at Evergreen will begin to gain more and more respect...

Jason Godesky said...

Aww, I thought my MetaFilter post might've been involved. :)

Anonymous said...

Army types are supposed to be paranoid pessimists. They should be the least likely to trust cornucopian optimists.

David said...

Great article as usual, except also not run through the spellchecker as usual :)

s/pitty/pity/

peter said...

Hey kids,

CNN will do a 6 part series this weekend (March 18th) on Peak Oil. http://www.energybulletin.net/13911.html

Just in case you have been hiding in a cave for the past week.

Peter said...

You might be interested in hearing that another top GOP thinker has admitted US policy is now all about the oil. http://karavans.typepad.com/karavans/2006/03/oil_wars.html

Peter said...

Looks like the Iranian Oil Bourse will be delayed. It was supposed to open this Monday.

"Despite repeated reports over the past 18 months or so that the planned bourse would finally open for business on March 20, 2006 -- and go head to head with the New York Mercantile Exchange and the ICE Futures Exchange in London -- the start date has been postponed by at least several months and maybe more than a year."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060314.RIRAN14/TPStory/Business

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