Monday, April 23, 2007

Five Geopolitical Feedback-Loops in Peak Oil

Energy Intelligence Note: April 23, 2007


It is quite common to hear “experts” explain that the current tight oil markets are due to “above-ground factors,” and not a result of a global peaking in oil production. It seems more likely that it is geological peaking that is driving the geopolitical events that constitute the most significant “above-ground factors” such as the chaos in Iraq and Nigeria, the nationalization in Venezuela and Bolivia, etc. Geological peaking spawns positive feedback loops within the geopolitical system. Critically, these loops are not separable from the geological events—they are part of the broader “system” of Peak Oil.

Existing peaking models are based on the logistics curves demonstrated by past peaking in individual fields or oil producing regions. Global peaking is an entirely different phenomenon—the geology behind the logistics curves is the same, but global peaking will create far greater geopolitical side-effects, even in regions with stable or rising oil production. As a result, these geopolitical side-effects of peaking global production will accelerate the rate of production decline, as well as increase the impact of that production decline by simultaneously increasing marginal demand pressures. The result: the right side of the global oil production curve will not look like the left…whatever logistics curve is fit to the left side of the curve (where historical production increased), actual declines in the future will be sharper than that curve would predict.

Here are five geopolitical processes, each a positive-feedback loop, and each an accelerant of declining oil production:

1. Return on Investment: Increased scarcity of energy, as well as increased prices, increase the return on investment for attacks that target energy infrastructure. Whether the actor is an ideologically driven group (al-Qa’ida), or a privateer (youth gangs in the Niger Delta), the geologically-driven declines increase the ROI for attacks on energy, which will drive both decisions to act, as well as targeting decisions for that action. This is a positive feedback-loop because attacks on energy infrastructure and supply drive up the price, which further increases the ROI for such attacks. John Robb's analysis of the September attacks on Mexican oil and natural gas pipelines suggest an ROI as high as 1.4 million percent.

2. Mercantilism: To avoid the dawning “bidding cycles” between crude oil price increases and demand destruction, Nation-States are increasingly returning to a mercantilist paradigm on energy. This is the attitude of “there isn’t enough of it to go around, and we can’t afford to pay the market price, so we need to lock up our own supply.” Whether it’s the direction of a pipeline flow out of Central Asia, defending only specified sea lanes, or influencing an occupied nation’s laws on Production Sharing Agreements, there are signs of a “new energy mercantilism” all around us. This is a positive feedback-loop because, like an iterated “prisoner’s dilemma” game, once one power adopts or intensifies a mercantilist attitude all others must follow suit or lose energy share. It will act to accelerate oil production declines because mercantilism prevents the most economically efficient production of a resource, accelerating the underlying problem of diminishing marginal returns. The rise of mercantilism is highlighted by the recent coverage of the race to control the Arctic, and its potentially vast hydrocarbon reserves.

3. “Export-Land” Model: Jeffrey Brown, a commentator at The Oil Drum, has proposed a geopolitical feedback loop that he calls the “export-land” model. In a regime of high or rising prices, a state’s existing oil exports brings in great revenues, which trickles into the state’s economy, and leads to increasing domestic oil consumption. This is exactly what is happening in most oil exporting states. The result, however, is that growth in domestic consumption reduces oil available for export. In states, such as Mexico, where oil production is also in decline, the “export-land” model predicts that oil exports will decline much faster than oil production—and this is exactly what is happening, with the latest PEMEX report showing 5% production decline year-on-year, but 11% export decline. Ultimately, the effects of the “export-land” model itself suffers from diminishing marginal returns—when exports shrink sufficiently, the oil-export revenue per capita will actually begin to decline (eventually reaching zero, no matter how fast prices rise), at which time the force behind rising domestic consumption will be eliminated. The likely unwillingness of governments to allow their valued oil export revenues to be totally consumed by rising domestic consumption will create pressure for domestic rationing, price-hikes, or uneven distribution of oil and gas domestically. We are already seeing this as many oil exporting countries are scaling back the subsidized pricing of domestic gasoline. The inequalities that will arise out of domestic rationing will act as a catalyst and accelerant to the last two feedback loops...

4. Nationalism: Because our Westphalian system is fundamentally broken, the territories of nations and states are rarely contiguous. As a result, it is often the case that a nation is cut out of the benefits from its host state’s oil exports. This will be especially apparent when the “export-land” effect reduces the total size of the pie to be divided, or as domestic rationing is introduced to maintain export revenues. As a result, nations or sectarian groups within states will increasingly agitate for a larger share of the pie. We see this already within Iraq, Iran (Khuzestan), Nigeria (Delta State), Bolivia (indigenous groups), etc. This process will develop local variants on the tactics of infrastructure disruption, as well as desensitize energy firms to ever greater rents for the security of their facilities and personnel—both of which will drive the next loop…

5. Privateering: Nationalist insurgencies and economies ruined by the downslide of the “export-land” effect will leave huge populations with no conventional economic prospects. High oil prices, and the willingness to make high protection payments, will drive those people to become energy privateers. We are seeing exactly this effect in Nigeria, where a substantial portion of the infrastructure disruption is no longer carried out by politically-motivated insurgents, but by profit-motivated gangs. This is the ultimate positive feedback-loop: infrastructure disruption further degrades any remnants of a legitimate economy, increasing the incentive to engage in energy Privateering, and compensating for any diminishing marginal returns in Privateering caused by enhanced security or competition from other privateers.

We may see some or all of these effects in any given area, and are already seeing this in some trouble spots. Some states, like Iraq, have been thrown into full-fledged “Nationalism” and “Privateering”-driven geopolitical disruption by the actions of an outside power—in this case, the US invasion was itself largely the byproduct of a shift towards energy mercantilism. This is just one illustration of the synergistic interrelationship among these feedback loops. The important take-aways are these:

1. So-called “above-ground factors” are driven by the geological reality

2. These geopolitical processes are positive feedback-loops

3. They will accelerate the decline in global oil production beyond that predicted by models derived from logistics curves.

Geologically driven decline follows a classic logistics curve, with a "long tail" of declining production continuing indefinitely. Geopolitical positive feedback-loops not only have the potential to accellerate that rate of decline, but can potentially drive it to zero in short order. Oil production requires certain threshold levels of economic functioning, security, and rule of law to proceed. These positive feedback-loops have the potential to cut off the "long tail" of declining production abruptly. It practically dogma in peak oil circles that peak oil doesn't mean the end of oil production, just the beginning of inexorable declines. In light of the potential impact of geopolitical feedback-loops, it may be time to reassess that idea, at least on a regional basis.

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jeff,

At this point, it seems to me that China is engaging in energy mercantilism. Do you think that China is acting in a mercantile fashion?

Can the U.S. involvement in Iraq be characterized as a failed attempt at mercantilism?

Thank you for an excellent site. TOD, Global Guerrillas, and Energy Intelligence are my peak oil triumvirate.

Jeff Vail said...

I definitely think that China is moving towards energy mercantilism.

Right now, they are actively pursuing oil concessions in Africa while simultaneously engaging in aid and development projects--this pairing is at least slightly mercantilist because it creates a link between continuation of that aid with the African state granting concessions favorable to China over others.

They are also actively pursuing long-term, bilateral contracts at a premium. This will lock up supply commitments in the future and remove them somewhat from bidding on the spot market.

I've also heard some rumors of China working with Venezuela to create an alternative refining market for Venezuelan ultra-heavy oil. I haven't kept up on these rumors, so I don't know the current status here, but I do know that Chavez would love to create an alternative for his oil so he can divest himself of CITGO.

These are baby steps towards a mercantilist attitude. The real game, from China's perspective, seems to be the Central Asian pipeline issue. The US & the West are mopping up there in the short term, but my hunch is that China is playing a longer-term strategy and will give the West enough rope to hang themselves.

With Tapis Crude (one of the primary East Asian delivery-point benchmarks) trading at such a premium to WTI, I think that we'll see the shift to mercantilism continue to increase, with Asia leading the way...

Mike Bendzela said...

Uh-huh.

And this is exactly why I think "peak oil" will never be widely acknowledged.

Until future analysts (if they have the privilege of existing) look back and say, "the peakers were right," we're always going to see attribution of shortages, conflicts, and price swings to "above-ground geopolitical" factors.

Proximate causes will blind people to ultimate causes. complicit/idiot media

Jeff Vail said...

An interesting and timely news bit, via LATOC:

Attack on Chinese-Run Oil Field in Ethiopia

Jeff Vail said...

Now it appears that 74 people were killed in the Ethiopia attack, compliments of the Ogaden National Liberation Front:

Bloomberg Article

File this one under "Nationalism" within a failed Westphalian system that includes this Somali national group within the state boundaries of Ethiopia. File the target selection under "ROI."

Anonymous said...

Jeff, I really think one of the big problems about oil (as with climate change!) is denial.

I work for a firm which includes most of the major petrol companies as clients. In a meeting we just had, I asked the group (including one of our top petro guys) how shifts in the oil biz (rising depletion rates, technological advances such as deepwater drilling, and increased nationalization of oil fields) would affect our biz with them, for better or for worse (I honestly don't know the answer...every problem is an opportunity, all that jazz).

I won;t go so far as to say I got shouted down, but my question was pooh-poohed, to say the least. I was told there's plenty of traditional oil left in the ground, our problem is just getting a bigger share of the contracts available, and so on.

While that's true to some extent, I just wanted to point out that neither of the senior managers wanted to address the elephant in the room that I had pointed out.

Maybe we should change the logo on our coins from "In God we Trust" to "Don't worry, be happy".

Anonymous said...

neither of the senior managers wanted to address the elephant in the room that I had pointed out.

Which elephant? It seems you pointed to a few:

1) Rising depletion rates
2) Deepwater drilling
3) Increased nationalization

It seems from the response you got addressing the amount of oil left in the ground you’re focusing on the rising depletion rates. If that is so, it need not be an issue of denial as you suspect, but quite possibly just disagreement. The theory of peak oil is not undisputed: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Criticism

Perhaps the top petro guys at your firm think they have a good reason for disregarding the peak oil alarmism and opting to side with Lynch, Maugeri, Luttwak, or the Cambridge Energy Research Associates report (http://cera.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0236-821_ITM) to name a few detractors, all of whom are critical of Hubbert’s peak oil theory for various reasons. Again, it doesn’t have to be a matter of an ignorant “Don’t worry, be happy” recklessness. A sure way to tell is the next time you’re in a meeting with the top petro guys at your firm, ask them why they disagree that oil production is peaking (either where their clients operate or worldwide). If they can’t say they disagree, then they’re approaching it in an irrational manner. If they can, then it’s simply a matter of which side of the issue they believe to be most representative of the reality, which might not be the side you're on.

xtraspatial said...

Jeff,

Your blog entry is right on!

Perhaps I'm being anal, but I believe you mean logistic curve, not logistics curve. I've worked a lot with logistic regression for predicting archeological sites in the southwest.

Anonymous said...

Jeff,

Thanks a lot for your very interesting geopolitical and economy related posts here and on TOD site.

I also see that states geopolitic nowdays heavily influenced by energy security and also that both above and below ground factors related to peak oil have to be considered togather.

Building pipelines from Russia to Germany (under Baltic see) and to Far East for Asian markets are good examples of state driven longer term energy views.

I think at some point though longer term oil contracts have to be enforced by military action as well. That will likely lead to proxy wars between US and China for example in Africa and Latin America for influence in oil producing countries. So some rebel activities we see now may be to some degree sponsored by outside powers as well in addition to local national groups.

daniel said...

Great Report. I have been unwillingly engulfed in the hoopla surrounding our countries negative relations with other countries, mostly in part, due to new energy crisis. I found a great article, much like this one, which further details some possible implications and scenarios our country might, and most likely will face in the future. Take a look.

http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/DRI/EDRIH668/

Enjoy....Cheers!

Anonymous said...

Feedback loop #6 is the desperate attempt to develop bio fuels like palm oil which accelerate global warming by de-forestation in the tropics. That in turn will sharpen the energy crisis. Inefficient hydrogen as fuel for cars is another example how the oil crisis is worsened

Howard said...

Re: Anonymous --

"Feedback loop #6"

There are alternatives to palm oil for biodiesel, the best of which (for now, anyway) appears to be algae.

Better yet, solar PV technology is getting better and cheaper rapidly. With that, and and further improvement in battery (or supercap) technology, the Arabs can eat sand.

"Inefficient hydrogen as fuel"

Understatement. Using hydrogen as an automobile fuel is insanely stupid.
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Anonymous said...

I can not believe it!!!! 130 dollars a barrel of oil!!!! Wow!!!!! Now that is enough incentive to look at technology. All this hype about oil supplies is just that hype we actually have about 50 years more oil supply than we need because as technology has been developing so has super-conductors and super-conducting magnets. Once we have a room temper super conductor and magnet we can make small generators that will supply more than a car. Oil is only supplying about 37% of the energy needs which is a pretty big market; however, super conductor generators are about to tap the energy of anything magnetic(i.e. earth, sun, solar system) and generate energy to supply 100% of the energy needs and than some. Bigger market more profit. The funny thing is all these people investing in the oil market on speculation I wonder if they took that into account because I figured we are about 5 to 8 years our from having them and on the day after they are invent oil is not longer of any use. I guess all those who speculated about the oil supply than will be looking for money tree since they lost all their money on that day.Oh by the way can we do speculation on which one will lose their fortune?

Gauhar Kachchhi said...

The situation is really bad. There is no will in America to conserve oil. Why should Asia and Europe do all the conservation thing?

It is going to be really tough for the poor countries. And it would become tougher in the United States after the Dollar Greenback crashes vis-a-vis the International Currencies. Then, no one would accept $ as a global currency of trade, and the Americans would have to pay HUGE amounts of cash to get their share of gas. Coupled to that the middle class in America is already under extreme stress from the over-consumption and debt culture.

What we all are witnessing here is really BIG! It is the beginning of the end of The Global Economy as we have known it for the last 150 years of Cheap energy.

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