CNN reports that oil surges nearly $3 as Thanksgiving weekend is expected to spur demand.
Is CNN suggesting that oil traders woke up this morning and said "Hey, look at this on the calendar--Thanksgiving! People might drive, and stuff, to, like, go places to eat Turkey. I totally didn't expect this major driving holiday to just pop up out of nowhere!"
This is a great example of the Narrative Fallacy--after the fact, it seems easy to explain why something happened. Before the fact it isn't quite so easy. I could have told you yesterday that people may drive places for Thanksgiving--I could have even told you when Thanksgiving would appear on the calendar--but I didn't have CNN's crystal ball to realize that this would be the reason oil is up today.
I wasn't around at the time, but I'm told that in 1938 people thought Neville Chamberlain was doing a fine job--it wasn't until 1945 that it was obvious to those same people that they knew all along that he had royally screwed up.
Peak Oil For Our Time!