Comments on Jeff Vail - Litigation Strategy & Innovation: Do exchange traded futures matter when there are a...

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http://www.mees.com/postedarticles/oped/v50n20-5OD...

2007-11-02T11:07:00.000-06:00

http://www.mees.com/postedarticles/oped/v50n20-5OD02.htm
http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2007/5/28/163423/546

more on the Cushing/WTI bottlencek issue plaguing the NYMEX. Another distorting factor used to be fund rolls that kept the futures prices in an artificial contango. That's gone away with new flexible commodity indexes like JP Morgan's.

The EROIE analysis misses something very important: the feedstock price and transportation characteristics. Is the energy input coal, hydro or nuclear? What is the dollar cost per MMBTU? Why is the "net energy input" involved in synthesizing fuel for transportation important if there are no cars (yet!) capable of burning coal? If it cost 5 MMBtus of coal to generate 4 MMBTus of gasoline, it may still make perfect sense, if coal costs $2/MMBTU and gasoline costs $30. the only thing that matters is the dollar return, which is entirely driven by the fuel's usefulness.

The value of an exchange-traded, negotiable instru...

2007-11-02T10:42:00.000-06:00

The value of an exchange-traded, negotiable instrument is that there is great volume, liquidity, and transparency (here on the NYMEX crude oil pit), and this sets the effective price

The thing is, NYMEX futures don't set the swap value now, only at maturity. What sets the swap value now are the market making institutions like investment banks capable of warehousing the commodity price risk and credit exposure entailed by such long term positions. The futures settlement farther out will follow the OTC indications, not the other way around.

Take a look at the open interest for the Dec 2015 contract: 7000 lots, versus 400,000 in the prompt. A paltry daily turnover of approximately 50 contracts (less than the minimum tradable volume in the OTC market.)

A far better indication than NYMEX out that far is found on the more OTC-oriented ICE exchange where NYMEX Platts and Brent indices all inform the prices.

Keep in mind also that most of these things are traded on a screen now anyway, including most NYMEX futures contracts. The futures pits are practically empty. Beyond the NYMEX suffers also from its physical delivery point: Cushing this year essentially decoupled from the rest of the world when its takeaway capacity was maxed out.

A better index for US prices in the Gulf Coast is the Platts LLS index (louisiana light sweet) -- swaps on this trade pretty heavily on ICE and the otc brokered market.

Oil shale will never yield a drop of net oil for t...

2007-11-01T20:03:00.000-06:00

Oil shale will never yield a drop of net oil for the U.S. Walter Youngquist of the Colorado School of Mines provides a detailed history and analysis of Colorado’s oil shale. After spending billions of dollars, industry has terminated oil shale operations due to a low net energy recovery and a lack of necessary water resources. http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Youngquist_98-4.pdf

Alternatives for replacing oil will not yield much. See my full report at http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

You're not the only one to express reservations ab...

2007-11-01T18:17:00.000-06:00

You're not the only one to express reservations about this. Well, of course it's technically possible, and improvements will be made. Nevertheless, the bottom line is defined by the EROEI, which translates into price. Will it produce oil at a price low enough to prop up what conventional oil has built? Further, will environmental remediation costs be factored into the price? To hold down the price, I suspect that there will be little or no environmental remediation.

Do you remember Joan C.? Her husband, Travis work...

2007-11-01T01:10:00.000-06:00

Do you remember Joan C.? Her husband, Travis worked for Shell, and he used to talk about how they bought out patents on all these alternate technologies and just sit on them to keep them out of the market. I suspect we'll see them when the price has been sufficiently driven up. Good talking to you yesterday.